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We can do it now
2021 was both an exciting and a
dramatic year. Twelve months ago,
I was hopeful that our pandemicinduced
trials would be behind us
by early 2022. Unfortunately, we
will have to be patient and surf on a
few additional variant waves before
they subside for good. All historical
plagues stopped at a certain point in
time. ‘Spanish Influenza’ started in
March 1918 and ended in July 1921.
Let’s be optimistic!
Green House Gas (GHG) emissions and their elimination comprised the overriding theme of the year. There is a palpable urgency across the world to seriously engage in the fight against climate change in which every industry is involved and bears its own responsibility. Based on IMO data, the volume of marine fuels (HFO, MGO, MDO, LNG, LPG and methanol) consumed has remained extraordinarily stable since 2008 oscillating between 310 and 340 m tonnes of oil equivalent despite the merchant fleet doubling in size from 1,108 m dwt (or 30,864 ships) to 2,072 m dwt (or 40,588 ships). This probably reflects two factors. Firstly, a reduction in service speed, especially for large container carriers going from 22-25 knots prior 2008 to 18-20 knots or less. Secondly, the fruits of the ‘eco-revolution’ that took place in naval architecture in the early 2010s allowing a reduction of 20-40% in the daily fuel consumption of newbuildings. |
The IMO still envisages cuts of 70% to CO2 and
50% to GHG emissions by 2050, when compared
to 2008 levels. Furthermore, it has mandated an
intermediate milestone of cutting CO2 emissions
by 40% by 2030, although ships are typically
designed and built to last for 30 years. Quite
a conundrum! To reach these IMO goals, the
shipping industry needs to find the optimal
mix of technical and operational measures and
innovative solutions.
But the shipping industry could do the necessary now
and show its leadership by simply adopting slow steaming. A 20%
reduction in service speed would result immediately into a 50%
drop in CO2 and GHG emissions.
We could go one step further and reduce the design service speeds
of bulkers and tankers from about 13-14 kt to about 11-12 kt and
of container carriers from 18-20 kt to 13-14 kt. Yes, we might need
some additional tonnage to cope with the reduction of speed but
before coming to that point we could also further optimize ships
(main engine, propeller, auxiliaries), adopt higher bloc-coefficients
and larger deadweight, design smaller engine rooms and develop
enlarged cargo capacity.
We could also search for better logistical efficiencies resulting in
more consistent speed profiles. It is heart-breaking to witness ships
sailing at full speed only to slow down and wait for days/weeks/
months especially in 2021 before delivering their cargo or crossing
oceans in ballast at full speed. We could also envisage more flexible
ships capable of always being loaded such as new Oil Bulk Ore
carriers (OBO) to avoid large bulkers and tankers sailing empty 50%
of the time.
The shipping industry must show real leadership and reinvent
itself. Strangely, if global consensus leads to the fundamental and
swift termination of fossil fuels, the main issue for the shipping
community in the next thirty years will not really be the reduction
of emissions from ships. The phasing out of fossil fuels (coal, oil,
gas) which account for 40% of cargo transported by sea will have
a much greater impact on shipping activities as we know them.
There is no historical precedent in the maritime industry for the
simultaneous termination of multiple commodities (coking coal,
steam coal, crude oil, petroleum products, LNG, LPG) apart from the
crude oil crisis of the late 1970s which stopped the construction
of super tankers and sent much of the tanker fleet directly from
shipyards to scrap yards.
In actuality, it is hard to say that the switch away from fossil fuels
is accelerating. Apart from the downwards blip in 2020 when
the global economy almost stopped, volumes of coal, oil and gas
transported by sea have increased rather than decreased over
the past decade. Phasing down will probably be the chosen path
rather than an abrupt phasing out. The realpolitik that emanated
from COP26 clearly showed that developing countries are not
going to trade-off economic growth for lower emissions, or at least not yet. Therefore, as developing economies
grow, fossil fuels will continue to ‘peak’ in the
years to come. There will be an eventual phasing
out of fossil fuels: coal will disappear first but
will be substituted with gas which could slightly
outlive crude oil.
We have to hope that science and technology
will save us from these vicissitudes and bring
us a completely novel solution unknown today.
If you asked a postman in the 19th century how
to speed up letter delivery he would have asked
for a speedier horse and never contemplated the
concept of email. As we wait for the required
quantum leap in innovation, the shipping
industry can show its leadership and bring the
330 m tonnes of marine fuel consumed per year
(or about 1 billion tonnes CO2 released into the
atmosphere!) down to 165 m tonnes (or about
500 m tonnes CO2) almost overnight, which
incidentally still remains too high. This makes
all current developments in dual fuels whatever
they are (natural gas, biogas, e-methane,
e-methanol, ammonia, hydrogen etc) and
alternative propulsion truly imperative and in
merit of being pursued with great determination.